Ifrit HM drops RIDICULOUS

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by Aidenn, Sep 24, 2013.

  1. Kawohni

    Kawohni Member

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    With the way probability works, you can spend every minute of your life doing something and never have it happen (if it's anything less than 100%). So you're not doing anything wrong, it's just probability messing with you.
  2. caucel

    caucel Well Known Member

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    I'm not English speaker but I understand very well the probabilities theory. I understand the Thorne behind logic.

    I don't know if that Thorne is said is working here. While there are not pre make sets here. I cannot explain it very well while my limited English skills.
  3. Lasha

    Lasha Member

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    Ok math person here.

    The math is correct but its is saying something different. His formula calculates the probability of not receiving an item over however many runs. So pumping in the numbers from the OP, there is a 21% chance of playing 30 rounds and only seeing items from a different class. The formula says nothing about you getting the item. Thinking so is an example of gambler's fallacy and why casinos get rich.

    The problem is that dungeon runs loot rolls are statistically independent. One dungeon roll doesn't have any affect on the roll during subsequent runs. An item with a 5% drop rate means at you always have a 95% chance of not getting the item. The probability of not getting the item goes down over time, but its only mathematical probability. Given a large set of data you will see some people following the probability curve, some people getting their items immediately, some people never getting the item.
    The47thSen, Genesys16 and caucel like this.
  4. caucel

    caucel Well Known Member

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    You are absolutely right Lasha.
  5. Grim

    Grim Active Member

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    Oh man, just move on to Garuda :)

    I don't want to sound bad but My first Ifrit kill and it droped bow that I got, My first Garuda win and again Bow drop that I got :) Not very interested in Titan's weapons though, they are 1:1 with Garuda and Mugle wepons on stats... looks like frozen ****
    caucel likes this.
  6. squarepusher

    squarepusher Member

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    random loot is random
  7. AgelessDaisy

    AgelessDaisy Well Known Member

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    Good luck to those of you who are running it. :)
  8. ArchadianAvenger

    ArchadianAvenger Member

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    Im with you there....BLM cudgel is eluding me everytime :(
  9. LadyVixx

    LadyVixx Member

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    I've run Ifrit HM many, many times, and still haven't gotten the weapon drops that I was after. Out of 20+ runs I've seen the bard weapon drop twice, (once while playing on my BLM, and once where I rolled a 4 need versus another bard in the party) and I saw the BLM weapon drop once while playing my bard when we didn't have a BLM in the party. Everyone rolled, and the guy who barely out rolled me finished by saying "LOL, guess I'll be set if I ever decide to make a BLM." f*cking asshole.
    Heras Death likes this.
  10. Genesys16

    Genesys16 Active Member

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    There is way too much math in this thread.
    (>人<; )
    That being said, primal weapons sound like a pain to get. (-。-; ) sorta thankful I'm a slow leveler and I don't need to worry about it yet. (*☻-☻*)
    caucel likes this.
  11. ArchadianAvenger

    ArchadianAvenger Member

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    ohh that is such a dick move lol im after my weapon in Wanderers Palace and the same thing happened to me was very annoyed.
  12. Kolossus

    Kolossus Active Member

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    The best bet at 50 is to purchase your level 50 GC weapon, do Ifrit hard mode once for the clear to access Garuda, and then farm Garuda for her weapons. The Ifrit weapons are only marginally better than your 50 GC, but the Garuda weapons are a large upgrade. Plus, when you come to hard mode Titan, the Ifrit weapon will be close to useless in comparison to Garuda's version.
  13. caucel

    caucel Well Known Member

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    That is a great advice, but... do you need the three weapons for do the relic quest?
  14. Kolossus

    Kolossus Active Member

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    At one stage of your relic weapon, you need a victory over hard mode Ifrit, Garuda and Titan. You need the Garuda weapon to be able to contribute to the group in the Titan fight, but none of the weapons are required for the relic quest itself.
  15. LadyVixx

    LadyVixx Member

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    no, none of them are required, although having them makes completion a bit easier.
  16. caucel

    caucel Well Known Member

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    Oh nice. It is good know it. Ty guys.
  17. ArchadianAvenger

    ArchadianAvenger Member

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    Ahh ok great advice, whats a good way to gain large sums of gil then, im a lvl 16 Blacksmit but selling my stuff only nets me minimal gil...
  18. Carsickness

    Carsickness Member

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    You know, now that you've mentioned it. I don't recall EVER seeing a BRD weapon drop.... In any of the Primal fights.

    My Garuda weapon (sword) dropped on the 4-5th attempt, so I "Need" rolled it and left the instance... Well guess what, leaving an instance before the dice actually roll, automatically gives you a "pass" roll.
    Yep, I'm an idiot. Took another 20+ attempts for mine to drop again. Lesson learned.

    Best way I've found is to harvest materia.
    I equip all my jewlery slots with sub-par (lvl 48-49) items. Then soulbind while doing AK runs (takes roughly 4) and extract the materia. Today was a good day and got 3 Battledance III and w/e that accuracy one is.
    Total worth at current market prices: $120,000
    Bringing me up to a total of: $810,000
    [​IMG]

    At lvl 16 you're not going to make any decent money. Your best bet is to just complete the story and you should be around 200k.
    Last edited: Sep 25, 2013
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  19. Grim

    Grim Active Member

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    haha, I only done it once, got distracted a little bit, left the instance...

    [​IMG]
    Carsickness likes this.
  20. ArchadianAvenger

    ArchadianAvenger Member

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    Hmm i never thought of materia...i shall try that out after work tonight huzzah!!!

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